What's at stake for all 4 WNBA teams in Round 2 of the playoffs
Let's do some more good basketball, please.
Good morning. The first round of the WNBA playoffs kicked ass, and I know that because I did nothing but tweet in caps all night. I love buzzer-beaters, drama and chaotic hoops. I’m ready af for more.
First, before I dig in, I have three things:
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Ok, let’s move on to what’s on the line for each team tonight.
Here’s Basketball.
The now, and future of the Los Angeles Sparks
The L.A. Sparks have the most to lose tonight. The No. 3 seed has championship goals, with added pressure because their Big 3 for the last five seasons — Candace Parker, Nneka Ogwumike and Chelsea Gray — are all free agents after the year ends. In five years, under two head coaches, that group has been to two Finals, and won one, while making the postseason every year. They’ve gone 108-50 in the regular season, but have been knocked out in the semis, and the second round of the playoffs the last two years.
Maybe unfairly, at 15-7, the Sparks still have to play in a single-elimination game against a tough Connecticut Sun team. The Sparks won both of their regular season games against the Sun, but only by a combined nine points. Tonight won’t be easy. DeWanna Bonner can go off at any moment, and Alyssa Thomas might be the best defensive player in the league.
If the Sparks win: They’ll have a chance to get back to the Finals and win another ring while Parker is at the top her game.
Who they’d play next: The Seattle Storm in a best-of-five series.
If the Sparks lose: It’ll suck because the Sparks had a very good season, and single-elimination games are super flukey. But it’ll cause a lot of self reflection to be done in the offseason. The team’s biggest selling point, of course, will be that Kristi Toliver didn’t play this year, and she’s signed for next season.
A loss to Connecticut would also be even more crushing, though, considering the Sun swept L.A. in an embarrassing semifinals series last year that resulted in the benching of Parker (which I wrote about here).
The Minnesota Lynx’s kids have a chance to shine
Minnesota’s exceeded expectations all season long, coasting to the No. 4 seed despite Maya Moore sitting out another season, Sylvia Fowles missing all but seven games, Karima Christmas-Kelly suffering a season-ending injury in Game 2, and several players missing time throughout the bubble. In their absence, second-year player Napheesa Collier starred like a top-5 or so player in the league, and point guard Crystal Dangerfield, the team’s second-round pick, blew everyone away as the frontrunner for Rookie of the Year.
Tonight’s game against the Phoenix Mercury is going to be competitive. They split the season series, and both games were decided by 10 points or less. The big question of the night: is Sylvia Fowles going to play? Fowles hasn’t played a game since August 13 after suffering a calf injury, but for the first time since, she’s been upgraded from out to questionable on the Lynx’s report.
If the Lynx win: The outcome of this game won’t break Minnesota, but it’d be a helluva year if they could advance and get additional postseason experience for their young pieces. If Fowles plays, their opponent would have their hands full, too. The Lynx would compete.
Who they’d play next: If the Sparks beat the Sun, the Lynx would play the Las Vegas Aces in a best-of-five series. If the Sun beat the Sparks, they’d play the Seattle Storm.
If the Lynx lose: As long as Fowles doesn’t re-injure herself — if she does end up playing — the Lynx can lose this game and still feel very good about the season they put together.
The Phoenix Mercury’s season has been hard to read. This game might help.
The Mercury entered the year with sky-high expectations after dealing DeWanna Bonner in the offseason for the pieces that would help them land Skylar Diggins-Smith. But they haven’t had their full championship-level roster for most of the summer. Jessica Breland didn’t play this season due to a medical exemption, Bria Hartley tore her ACL 13 games into her breakout season, and Brittney Griner left the bubble for personal reasons after Game 12.
Since Griner’s exit, the Mercury’s season has picked up pace, though. Second-year big Brianna Turner launched her name into Defensive Player of the Year consideration, and Diana Taurasi and Diggins-Smith playing together has been a force. The Mercury won 7 of their 10 games without Griner. Then, of course, Shey Peddy’s buzzer-beating three saw them beat the Mystics in Round 1 of the playoffs.
If the Mercury win: We might need to start asking questions about Griner’s fit on next year’s roster.
Who they’d play next: If the Sparks beat the Sun, they’d play the Las Vegas Aces in a best-of-five series. If the Sun beat the Sparks, they’d play the Seattle Storm.
If the Mercury lose: It’ll be a disappointing, but understandable exit. Losing this early in a year Taurasi, at 38 years old, played this well in would burn, but Phoenix never had a fair chance to reach its peak with so many players missing.
The Connecticut Sun can prove how freaking scary they are/are going to be
Like the other teams I’ve mentioned, injuries and early-season exits have taken away from what the complete Connecticut Sun experience could be. Most notably, Jonquel Jones, a top-5 player from last season, opted out before the bubble began, and Briann January, a lockdown defensive player, missed the first nine games of the year due to Covid-19.
Still, Connecticut’s put together a solid season. DeWanna Bonner has fit right into the Sun’s system playing next Alyssa Thomas. Those two have bulldozed through weaker opponents after some adjustments, turning around what was an 0-5 open to the season, to a 10-12 finish.
If the Sun win: They might do more damage to L.A. than anything else for the reasons I’ve mentioned above. But they’ll also have put together a super impressive year given the circumstances. When they bring Jones back next season… Yikes!
Who they’d play next: The Las Vegas Aces in a best-of-five series.
If the Sun lose: So be it. They’re still gonna scary af in 2021.
How to watch tonight’s games:
Game 1: Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx at 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN2
Game 2: Connecticut Sun vs. Los Angeles Sparks at 9:00 p.m. ET on ESPN2
Here’s some DraftKings tips for those who are playing:
Guards to pick
Diana Taurasi, Phoenix Mercury ($9,500) - Again, it’s a single-elimination game. Pick Diana Taurasi.
Odyssey Sims, Minnesota Lynx ($7,200) - As far as budget guards go, Sims is your option. The Lynx might give her more minutes in the playoffs. Still, she’s a risky pick. If Fowles doesn’t play, she’ll get more shots. If Fowles does… who knows.
Guards to avoid
Crystal Dangerfield, Minnesota Lynx ($8,500) - I don’t think Dangerfield is a terrible option, I just have her listed here because I think, at a similar price, Chelsea Gray ($8,800) is a much better option.
Forwards to pick
Alyssa Thomas, Connecticut Sun ($11,400) - She’s the most expensive player of the day, but one of the best rebounders in the world is worth drafting. She’s averaged 42 fantasy points in two games against L.A., and is a tough matchup for anyone on the Sparks’ roster.
Napheesa Collier, Minnesota Lynx ($10,800) - Simply put, Phoenix doesn’t have a forward on the roster who can guard Collier. She’s averaged 44 fantasy points against them.
Kia Vaughn, Phoenix Mercury ($7,600) - Vaughn’s been money in the mid-range off Diggins-Smith and Taurasi pick-and-rolls. Her fantasy impact will rely on whether she continues to knock them down.
Forwards to avoid
Candace Parker, Los Angeles Sparks ($11,100) - Call me a giant clown if I’m wrong, but Bonner and Thomas can really throw off Parker’s rhythm. Not many teams are built to contain her. Connecticut is. She’s averaged just 34 fantasy points against them.
Brianna Turner, Phoenix Mercury ($9,900) - I only have ONE reason for this, and it’s because there’s a chance Fowles might play.
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